By Darcy MacCallum
Just a few months ago, immigration was a priority issue in Canada and around the world. People were concerned about refugee numbers, international student visas, how immigration and housing impact one another, and many more issues–often discussed with very negative overtones. In late October Minister Marc Miller announced the Trudeau government’s plan to reduce immigration numbers over the next three years. But how big of a change is it? Comparing the last few years helps put these changes into perspective.
As you can see, the last two years have represented a dramatic increase even from pre-COVID levels. The targets for the coming three years actually remain higher than any year since the turn of the century! Permanent Resident numbers peaked at 493,000 in 2022-23. Pre-COVID, the highest level was 2015-16 with 323,000 permanent resident (PR) visas issued.
The next three years are projected as follows:
| Year | PR Visas |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 395,000 |
| 2026 | 380,000 |
| 2027 | 365,000 |
So while there is indeed a steep decline in total PR numbers projected for the coming years (down 21% this year), the overall totals remain strong. The biggest change, then, is not so much the number of people coming to Canada, but the context within which they are coming. And at the forefront of these changes is a significant reduction in funding for immigrant-serving programs by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
Funding for immigration programs is tied to projected immigration numbers. So when Minister Miller made the announcement about reducing the number of immigrants, everyone in the settlement sector took note. And when the decisions came down for funding agreements that started April 1, 2025, it was not surprising (though still disappointing) that instead of five-year grants, agencies were being offered three-year grants.
Among the many changes happening with funding decisions is a change in the priorities around language instruction funded by IRCC (Language Instruction for Newcomers to Canada – LINC). The focus is now on Stage 1 language classes (Literacy to CLB level 4). Programs like Enhanced Language Training (ELT) that combined employment readiness with higher-level language instruction are being phased out by the end of March 2026 (though this year, many will continue to offer CLB 5 sector-specific language training). And, it is unclear if the province can/will meet the gap in funding through ESL programs.
What does this mean for the local church-based ESL program?
For years I have been advocating that churches should be conducting environmental scans to understand what services are available to newcomer clients, who is eligible for these programs, and where the church can fill the gap. That gap has become much clearer regarding language instruction.
While some agencies are creating targeted LINC classes for women and seniors, churches could consider similar targeting. A significant area of need is employment focused training, especially for people who are seeking to obtain Canadian credentials or looking to improve their prospects for professional jobs in fast-paced workspaces. Sector-specific language training is also worth exploring, and may be a chance to recruit professionals from your wider church membership. Aim at the levels of English not available through government-funded programs. And, ask your existing clients what they think. I suspect they and their friends are nervous about where and how they will get the language training that is no longer available through community agencies.
Now that Canadians are focused on trade wars and tariffs, building a strong, enduring economy has become a priority. I believe immigration plays a vital role in such an economy. Churches that have ESL ministries are in a strategic space, able to meet a gap in services that will empower newcomers to contribute in stronger ways.